Know exactly how to invest your TSP — every month.
A data-driven allocation model that tells you which TSP funds to be in and when to move to safety. Updated on the 1st of every month. You just log in to TSP.gov and apply it.
30 days free. $29/mo after. Cancel anytime.
This Month's Signal
Remained in risk-on. Equity momentum continues above threshold.
The C Fund Has Averaged Nearly 11% Per Year Since 2003. So Why Do Most TSP Holders Earn Far Less?
The C Fund's long-term returns are excellent. The problem isn't the returns — it's surviving the path to get them.
In 2008, the C Fund lost over 50% of its value from peak to trough. Most people who watched this happen didn't hold steady — they moved to the G Fund near the bottom, then stayed there for years, missing most of the recovery.
This is called the behavior gap — the difference between what the market returns and what investors actually earn. It's the #1 destroyer of retirement wealth, and it affects TSP holders just as much as anyone else.
You don't need better funds. You need a system that keeps you invested when it's safe and moves you to protection when it's not.
One Signal. Once a Month. Five Minutes on TSP.gov.
Each month on the 1st, the FedPath model analyzes momentum across TSP equity funds. If equities are strong, it tells you exactly how to allocate. If they're not, it moves you to safety. No guessing, no watching the market daily, no second-guessing yourself.
Check your signal
Log in to FedPath on the 1st of the month
Apply it on TSP.gov
Enter the allocation percentages — we show you exactly what to enter
Go live your life
The model watches the market so you don’t have to
21 Years of Data. Every Market Crash Included.
Backtested from 2004-07 through 2026-02 (260 months) using actual TSP fund prices.
Growth of $100,000
Both strategies grew $100,000 to roughly the same place. The difference is what happened along the way.
The model grew $100K to $948,720 — while cutting the worst decline by 75%.
The 2008 Stress Test
C Fund in 2008
Our Model (worst case)
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to get back to even. A 13% loss requires only a 15% gain. That's the difference between a temporary setback and a retirement-altering event.
Drawdown Comparison
Maximum decline from prior peak. The C Fund required surviving a 50% loss. The model's worst was 12.6%.
| Metric | FedPath | C Fund | 60/20/20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Return | 10.94% | 10.78% | 10.03% |
| Worst Decline | -12.62% | -50.92% | -52.41% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.81 | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| $100K Grew To | $948,720 | $919,619 | $792,709 |
Past performance does not predict future results. Backtest results are hypothetical and do not reflect actual trading. The model was designed using historical data and may not perform similarly going forward.
See this month's signal.
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Everything You Need. Nothing You Don't.
Monthly allocation signal
Published on the 1st. Exact fund percentages for C, S, I, G, and F.
Copy-ready for TSP.gov
One click copies your allocation. No math, no guessing.
Full analysis & reasoning
Understand why the model made each decision. Momentum data, regime context, volatility status.
Email briefings
Get your signal delivered to your inbox. Know immediately if anything changed.
Customizable G Fund reserve
Keep a portion in safety if you want extra stability. The model adjusts the rest proportionally.
21-year signal archive
Browse every monthly allocation back to 2004. See how the model navigated every crash and recovery.
Performance tracking
Growth charts, drawdown comparisons, and key metrics updated monthly.
Intra-month safety alerts
Rare alerts when significant market events require attention. The model watches so you don’t have to.
How the Model Makes Decisions
Measure Momentum
Track 12-month trailing returns for the C, S, and I Funds. Rank them by performance to find the strongest equity fund.
Safety Check
Compare the top equity fund’s 3-month return against the G Fund. If equities aren’t outperforming the safest option, it’s a warning sign.
Allocate or Protect
If equities pass the safety check, allocate proportionally to the strongest funds. If not, move everything to the G or F Fund — whichever has better recent performance.
Rebalance Monthly
A new signal is published on the 1st of each month based on the prior month’s closing prices. You implement the allocation yourself at TSP.gov.
This is an educational overview of the model methodology. The allocation signal is the same for all subscribers and does not constitute personalized financial advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
Stop Guessing. Start Following the Signal.
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